Plan Bay Area:
Planning Scenarios

March 9, 2012 Update
At the Joint MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committee meeting on March 9, 2012, staff presented the Plan Bay Area “Draft Jobs-Housing Connection Scenario.” The draft scenario includes jobs, population and housing distribution by 2040 for the region, counties, cities and priority development areas. It provides an overview of past and projected trends: how the region grew over the past thirty years and expected economic and demographic trends; housing access and production challenges; and the relationship of housing, employment centers and transportation infrastructure.

This draft scenario has been developed to demonstrate how the Bay Area’s diversity of communities and natural resource areas can retain and enhance their unique qualities and characteristics supported by a strong, globally competitive economy with housing opportunities located in proximity to job centers and transit services.

Staff has utilized the work of several outside consultants in developing the draft Jobs-Housing Connection scenario. Background reports and presentations from their analysis can be found here.

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October 2011 Update
MTC and ABAG staffs are developing detailed land-use and transportation network assumptions for five scenarios, which will be used to inform the development of the preferred scenario of Plan Bay Area. Each scenario will illustrate different housing/jobs distribution and transportation infrastructure investments. The scenarios will be evaluated as to how well they help the region to achieve the 15 percent per-capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction target and other Plan Bay Area performance targets. The draft scenario performance results are scheduled to be released in December 2011.

Within these five scenarios, staff will be testing two different transportation network options:

1. Transportation 2035 Network that mirrors the investment strategy from the adopted Transportation 2035 Plan, wherein approximately 80 percent of the projected 25-year revenue goes toward maintenance of the existing transportation system and 20 percent is for priority roadway, transit and bike/pedestrian improvements, and;
2. Core Capacity Transit Network that allocates approximately 80 percent of the projected 25-year revenue to maintenance and operations of the existing system and roughly 16 percent to core capacity transit improvements (such as service frequency improvements). Other priority roadway and bike/pedestrian improvements are also included with the remaining 3 percent.

MTC staff has been working closely with Congestion Management Agency (CMA) staff in each of the nine Bay Area counties, transit operators (BART, Muni, VTA, etc.) and other stakeholders to develop these networks. The result is the List of Significant Uncommitted Projects, which identifies roughly 300 roadway and transit projects across the region and the transportation network(s) for which they will be tested. (Transit enhancements, bike and pedestrian improvements and other non-capacity increasing projects are not listed here, but they are included in the plan process for consideration in the financially constrained plan.)

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Initial Vision Scenario

March 11, 2011
Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) staff today unveiled an Initial Vision Scenario for the Sustainable Communities Strategy mandated by the 2008 passage of state Senate Bill 375, which requires the Bay Area and other California metro areas to develop integrated regional land-use and transportation plans to meet state targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks. The release of the Initial Vision Scenario provides a starting point for conversations with local governments and Bay Area residents about where new development should occur, and how new long-term transportation investments can serve this new growth. This effort will culminate in 2013 with the adoption of a new long-range plan for the nine-county region. The plan, to be known as Plan Bay Area, will detail a 25-year transportation investment and land-use strategy for 2015-2040, and will be the region’s first such plan to incorporate a Sustainable Communities Strategy.

The Initial Vision Scenario focuses on the location of growth areas around the Bay Area and outlines a future development pattern. It assumes a strong economy in which the region will add some 1.2 million jobs by 2035 and will need 903,000 more housing units than currently are available. The scenario assumes sufficient funding for affordable housing and supportive public infrastructure investments, but is not a forecast for the region.

“The Initial Vision Scenario makes the most of the Bay Area’s existing infrastructure,” explained MTC Planning Director Doug Kimsey. “It projects that 97 percent of all new households will be accommodated in already urbanized areas, and particularly in cities where residents have access to frequent public transit service. Under this scenario, 70 percent of the growth, or 632,100 new households, will go into places that have been designated ‘close to transit’ by local jurisdictions. And the Bay Area’s biggest cities get even bigger, with San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland together accounting for nearly one-third of all new housing units.”

“The Initial Vision Scenario is a tool to advance dialogue among the Bay Area’s regional agencies, together with our local government partners, nonprofit organizations, business and community groups, and interested Bay Area residents,” said ABAG Executive Director Ezra Rapport. “Through this collaborative planning effort to strengthen the character and qualities of our neighborhoods and communities, we can tackle the region’s population growth with a mix of housing, while preserving open spaces, protecting our economy, and getting residents where they need to go.”

MTC is the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area’s transportation planning, coordinating and financing agency. Founded in 1961, ABAG is the official regional planning agency for the 101 cities and towns, and nine counties of the Bay Area, and is recognized as the first council of governments in California.

Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS)
Initial Vision Scenario — Fact Sheet

Action/Decision	Initial Vision Scenario
Purpose	For ABAG and MTC to develop an unconstrained “Initial Vision Scenario” with input from local jurisdictions and county Congestion Management Agencies (CMA).  This Initial Vision Scenario will articulate the Bay Area’s vision of future land uses and assess its performance relative to statutory greenhouse gas and housing targets as well as other voluntary performance targets.  The Initial Vision Scenario serves as a starting point for the development, analysis and discussion of detailed SCS alternatives that will lead to a preferred SCS by early 2012.
Key Activities	ABAG and MTC will provide local jurisdictions with materials to present before their city councils to explain the SCS and the process for local government input into the plan. Local jurisdictions will identify places that can accommodate the region’s future population growth and employment and the policies, strategies and incentives to support this growth. The current RTP will provide the basis for the Initial Vision Scenario’s transportation network; however, some modifications will be considered that will support additional growth locations identified in the scenario. If local jurisdictions do not identify places to accommodate the needed additional growth, ABAG will make housing distribution assumptions for those locations as part of developing the Initial Vision Scenario. The locally identified places and policies will be delivered to ABAG in mid-December 2010 to undergo regional analysis through ABAG’s land-use model and MTC’s travel model. ABAG and MTC will release the Initial Vision Scenario, which will illustrate the places and policies for future growth as well as the performance of the scenario relative to targets.
Significance of the Task	The input and data collected from the local jurisdictions will provide the basis for development patterns, policy measures and funding strategies to be considered when developing the detailed SCS alternatives.
Key Participants	Local governments County congestion management agencies
Opportunities for Public Involvement	By March 2011, the Initial Vision Scenario will serve as the starting point for public comment on the development, analysis and discussion of detailed SCS alternatives. Public workshops throughout the region will occur between April and July 2011. Review of the Initial Vision Scenario by advisory groups such SCS Regional Advisory Working Group and Regional Equity Working Group, MTC Policy Advisory Council, ABAG Regional Planning Committee and others.
Estimated Timeframe	November – December 2010 – Local jurisdiction input on Initial Vision Scenario Mid-December 2010 – Jurisdictions provide Initial Vision Scenario information to ABAG and MTC December 2010 - February 2011 – ABAG and MTC develop and assess Initial Vision Scenario against targets March 2011 – Release of Initial Vision Scenario for public discussion
Board Action	Review and release of Initial Vision Scenario and assessment for public discussion (March 2011)
Lead Staff Contacts	ABAG:  Kenneth Kirkey, 510.464.7955, kennethk@abag.ca.gov MTC:  Doug Kimsey, 510.817.5790, dkimsey@mtc.ca.gov